The Emperor Clearly has no Clothes but it seems that Nudity is now in Fashion.

On Dec. 3rd, the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) declassified a report that had been released to the current administration intelligence group as late as August of this year, that “with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program“. The next day, Tuesday the Prez stated that he was never forewarned of the current intelligence communities’ report on Iran. This coming out because the report was released to the administration in August, so what he’s saying is at no point in the last 3 months, did anyone let him know… “Uh W, there could be a chance that Iran hasn’t been working towards this nuke goal…” And during that same time, he continued to spout that the Iranians were hell bent on getting these weapons as well as we should be watching them to start WWIII (Bush speech Oct. 18th, 2007).

This intelligence report is now coming under fire from the GOP why? Well: 1) because it contradicts a 2005 report that stated Iran is 10 years from creating a nuke weapon and 2) because the GOP believe the NIE is now politicizing it’s reports (all of the sudden they are NOW favoring a political parties agenda… imagine that), OR 3) could it be that this contradicts the planned agenda and rhetoric the GOP has been throwing up all over America that Iran is a bigger threat than the reality?

The NIE defends it’s report (Vanee Vines, spokeswoman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), defended the report, saying that each NIE is a “group exercise” involving the “entire intelligence community.”) and white house stands by the intelligence communities information (this time) as it’s a coordinated and group effort made up of many agencies and people, and NOT created by just a few political hacks that ignore real intelligence and like a bad reality show, edit together a report to fit their own storyline.

This Bushian etymology was tracked by Dan Froomkin at the Washington Post’s website and shows a time line of his public statements, and how they have evolved as the evolution of intelligence on Iran has come to light – some interesting changes in message can be noted around the time the new intelligence was presented to the administration:

March 31st 2007: “Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon…”

June 5th 2007: Iran’s “pursuit of nuclear weapons…”

June 19th 2007: “consequences to the Iranian government if they continue to pursue a nuclear weapon…”

July 12th 2007: “the same regime in Iran that is pursuing nuclear weapons…”

August 6th 2007: “this is a government that has proclaimed its desire to build a nuclear weapon…”

Notice a pattern?

Then as Froomkin asserts around early August the rhetoric changes (McConnell, or someone, must have briefed him then, however, Bush only says that new information was available, however, he wasn’t told what it was):

August 9th: “They have expressed their desire to be able to enrich uranium, which we believe is a step toward having a nuclear weapons program…”

August 28th: “Iran’s active pursuit of technology that could lead to nuclear weapons…”

October 4th: “you should not have the know-how on how to make a (nuclear) weapon…”

October 17th: “until they suspend and/or make it clear that they, that their statements aren’t real, yeah, I believe they want to have the **capacity**, the **knowledge**, in order to make a nuclear weapon.”

Before August 9th, it’s: Trying to develop, build or pursue a nuclear weapon.

After August 9th, it’s: Desire, pursuit, want…knowledge technology know-how to enrich uranium.

The National Intelligence Estimate this week talks of the Iranians suspending their nuclear weapons program in 2003, yet, still try to push the threat of Iran even though it’s become visible that his tone has changed and he may have lied to the general public about the threat of Iran…. sound familiar??? *Cough* Iraq…

It’s ultimately become clear though, (and if it hasn’t already) that this new information has irreparably damaged American credibility regarding international policy efforts. In my mind it looks like we have someone that has lied to the nation about the treat of violence from another nation, in a time where American resources are already drawn thin in areas of the world that are not immediately threating to home soil interests.

I knew one earlier president that lied and was impeached… he lied about the relationship between himself and an intern – something no where near the threat to civil liberties or American safety as would be lying about the threat of nuclear war.

Subway violence

I’ve been riding the subway (in Manhattan) for over 4 years and I’ll never say that I know how it was back in the day where every day riders had to watch their back from muggings, thugs, knifing or other violence to the citizens of NYC. Since crimes in the city and on the subways have been at an all time low, I haven’t truly encountered a situation quite like the one in the latest Smoking Gun post:

“A” Train Beat Down Video*

*A male subway rider was beaten on a subway car, at night, in east New York, by a group of teenage girls who verbally taunted him before the attack, all caught on video.

I’m certain this abuse of riders (and other residents) happens more than it’s publicly give attention to, as it was a common occurrence in the 80’s when there were up to 40 criminal incidents reported a day in the NYC subway system. After watching this, it reminds me of why everyone needs to check themselves and their surroundings – never let your guard down and always expect the unexpected. The other side of this, is unless you know full well it won’t come to this, don’t engage unruly groups of kids/gangs/adults with out being prepared for this.

I can tell this guy was engaging this chick, and she full well wanted the confrontation – who wouldn’t stand up with 4,5,6 friends backing you up? In part I blame him for helping to escalate the situation, however, everyone has a choice and he could choose to walk away before it got to this point. You never know, one or several of these girls could have been packing tools, shivs, weapons etc. and there’s no guarantee a stranger will back you up in this town.

Ultimately we all want to think that gang violence shouldn’t happen, but kids are a product of their parental (or lack of) upbringing, their environment and the relationship with their peers.

Out here Manhattanites – and I say Manhattanites because we all do live on an island isolated from lower income residents, the disheveled neighborhoods, the street violence, and many of the lifestyles of the outer-borough residents (or other neighborhoods in this country) – have let their guard down for too long and are perceived weak and susceptible to attack from those that want to take advantage or prove something. I see them every day, unaware of the people around them because they feel guarded by the safety net Manhattan has seemed to have provide for the last few years. Violence has been pushed to the outer-boroughs; it can’t afford to survive in Manhattan anymore. But everyone should realize you can take the kid out of the ghetto but you can’t take the ghetto out of the kid, and if you didn’t know that East New York is only 30-40 minutes by train, you didn’t know you’re that close to some trouble.

If I give my perception of the video in the post (btw just fast forward to 2:45 into the vid), the guy is comfortable with or lives in East NY, he’s taking the train way out near Rockaway and he had several opportunities to dissolve or change the scenario. I don’t know what happened after the end, I can only hope he inflicted some pain on these girls, but I do know if he didn’t want it escalated to this, he could have moved cars, gotten off at an earlier stop, or just not engaged the mob mentality of this gang of bitches.

Now what I’ve written on this subject so far has been about mob mentality, violence, product of your environment, being in the wrong place at the wrong time… but what if I interjected race relations into this. Does it make a difference that the rider was white and the kids were black? Could it be that because of their race, is why there aren’t more people marching in the streets angered about this situation? This has been a light story around the streets for over a day now, and only online message boards and casual conversation have spurred debate on it.

What if the rider was black and the gang of kids attacking him were white? Do you think there would be more community outrage, at least even in the black community. Would Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson come out to denounce yet again the racial hatred in American and whites? Abso-fucking-lutely, but this incident was not about race, it was about garnering peer respect for showing superiority over another individual.

Ultimately this makes me think about the next time I take the A out to JFK, I might rather pony up the $45 for a car service…. or just make sure I have something other than my keys on me for protection…

It’s cheaper to lease…

This was a post on craigslist recently:

MORE advice for woman seeking $500k+ earning man

What am I doing wrong?

Okay, I’m tired of beating around the bush. I’m a beautiful
(spectacularly beautiful) 25 year old girl. I’m articulate and classy.
I’m not from New York. I’m looking to get married to a guy who makes at
least half a million a year. I know how that sounds, but keep in mind
that a million a year is middle class in New York City, so I don’t think
I’m overreaching at all.

Are there any guys who make 500K or more on this board? Any wives? Could
you send me some tips? I dated a business man who makes average around
200 – 250. But that’s where I seem to hit a roadblock. 250,000 won’t get
me to central park west. I know a woman in my yoga class who was married
to an investment banker and lives in Tribeca, and she’s not as pretty as
I am, nor is she a great genius. So what is she doing right? How do I
get to her level?

Here are my questions specifically:

– Where do you single rich men hang out? Give me specifics- bars,
restaurants, gyms

-What are you looking for in a mate? Be honest guys, you won’t hurt my
feelings

-Is there an age range I should be targeting (I’m 25)?

– Why are some of the women living lavish lifestyles on the upper east
side so plain? I’ve seen really ‘plain jane’ boring types who have
nothing to offer married to incredibly wealthy guys. I’ve seen drop dead
gorgeous girls in singles bars in the east village. What’s the story
there?

– Jobs I should look out for? Everyone knows – lawyer, investment
banker, doctor. How much do those guys really make? And where do they
hang out? Where do the hedge fund guys hang out?

– How you decide marriage vs. just a girlfriend? I am looking for
MARRIAGE ONLY

Please hold your insults – I’m putting myself out there in an honest
way. Most beautiful women are superficial; at least I’m being up front
about it. I wouldn’t be searching for these kind of guys if I wasn’t
able to match them – in looks, culture, sophistication, and keeping a
nice home and hearth.

it’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial
interests

PostingID: 432279810

THE RESPONSE
Dear Pers-431649184:

I read your posting with great interest and have thought meaningfully
about your dilemma. I offer the following analysis of your predicament.
Firstly, I’m not wasting your time, I qualify as a guy who fits your
bill; that is I make more than $500K per year. That said here’s how I
see it.

Your offer, from the prospective of a guy like me, is plain and simple a
crappy business deal. Here’s why. Cutting through all the B.S., what you
suggest is a simple trade: you bring your looks to the party and I bring
my money. Fine, simple. But here’s the rub, your looks will fade and my
money will likely continue into perpetuity…in fact, it is very likely
that my income increases but it is an absolute certainty that you won’t
be getting any more beautiful!

So, in economic terms you are a depreciating asset and I am an earning
asset. Not only are you a depreciating asset, your depreciation
accelerates! Let me explain, you’re 25 now and will likely stay pretty
hot for the next 5 years, but less so each year. Then the fade begins in
earnest. By 35 stick a fork in you!

So in Wall Street terms, we would call you a trading position, not a buy
and hold…hence the rub…marriage. It doesn’t make good business sense
to ‘buy you’ (which is what you’re asking) so I’d rather lease. In case
you think I’m being cruel, I would say the following. If my money were
to go away, so would you, so when your beauty fades I need an out. It’s
as simple as that. So a deal that makes sense is dating, not marriage.

Separately, I was taught early in my career about efficient markets. So,
I wonder why a girl as ‘articulate, classy and spectacularly beautiful’
as you has been unable to find your sugar daddy. I find it hard to
believe that if you are as gorgeous as you say you are that the $500K
hasn’t found you, if not only for a tryout.

By the way, you could always find a way to make your own money and then
we wouldn’t need to have this difficult conversation.

With all that said, I must say you’re going about it the right way.
Classic ‘pump and dump.’
I hope this is helpful, and if you want to enter into some sort of
lease, let me know.